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Saturday, April 23, 2011

It Doesn't Get Much More Contrarian Than Uranium

I was scanning Marketwatch articles in a thorough way for the first time in about six months, and stumbled across this article arguing in favor of speculating on uranium.


For rather obvious reasons, this is probably one of the most contrarian plays I've ever seen. Bottom fishing in Japan right now is one of the more obvious ones, but this is really going into the heart of the storm. The good case being made is that production actually is not keeping up with fuel usage in existing power plants and that the difference has been made up by recycling (or re-purposing) old nuclear weapons. That cannot go on forever, so that supply imbalance will eventually be reflected in prices.

However, the case against it is that even existing levels of demand are not as solid as they appear because not only Japan, but also Germany may be disinvesting in nuclear power. In German politics, this has recently proved a formidable issue that has spurred plans for phasing out the country's nuclear power plants. http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/21/business/global/21rwe.html

In short, the current levels of demand may not be safe.

In any case, for the brave there is Uranium Participation Corporation (URPTF).


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