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Sunday, May 1, 2011

Smartphone Market Share Wars

Google's edge appears to be growing, for the moment at least. Among recent acquirers, it is toasting just about everyone else:

These data confirm why Motorola Mobility (MMI) reported a solid first quarter while Research in Motion (RIMM) reported a positively dreadful quarter. Incidentally, the trends in both stocks going into their earnings releases were indicative of exactly the opposite of what was reported. RIMM had been having a small rally while MMI had been slumping into its release. So much for the market always predicting these things correctly.

On a larger point, it is very difficult to see how RIMM recovers from its rapidly shrinking share. Both Android and iOS have been making headway in being adopted by enterprise customers, which are RIMM's last bastion. To put it mildly, I wouldn't be astonished if RIMM is struggling for survival in another five years. 

These data are not too bearish for Apple (AAPL) at the moment because 25% of a growing pie is not all that bad, though this isn't as bullish for them as it once was. Still, this share relatively to where they had been is a much better position than RIMM, which once had something over 50% market share and now is only at 15% among new adopters. 

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