Opinions and observations expressed on this blog reflect the authors' individual experiences and should not be construed to be financial advice. None of the members of this blog are licensed financial advisors. Please consult your own licensed financial advisor if you wish to act on any recommendations here.

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Ireland and Financial Contagion

So, I believe it is time to bring out this table again of U.S. banking exposure:

As you can see, our banks have a fair amount of exposure to Ireland, but more worrying is this article from the Daily Telegraph. The exposure that British banks have to Ireland may be sufficient to sink them in their already battered state. What's more is that the current government in the UK is already somewhat hobbled by flagging approval ratings in the face of budget cuts. I am not certain how much stomach there is for potentially another big round of bailouts. International coordination might take some of the sting out of it, but we are looking at another round of substantial bailouts that are quite unpopular. Apparently, the IMF stands ready to save the day. The indications are that Ireland is actually the reluctant party and that the EU and and the IMF have been attempting to push for a bailout for some time.

Fundamentally, a bailout is needed to prevent a severe near term financial crisis in Ireland. While many have tried to point out that Ireland's government is funded through mid-2011, that is only relative to current spending. Ireland has guaranteed basically all deposits at domestic banks, meaning that widespread failures would trigger significant immediate government spending. In short, if the banking crisis gets bad enough, there is a solvency issue.

Frankly, I'm amazed that the Irish banks are still standing after a run amounting to 11% of deposits has already taken place. We'll see if an international backstop stops the bleeding. If you want to speculate on worthless Irish bank stocks, have at Anglo Irish (AIB), but what little is left of the value there is probably at risk even at these levels. At best we are probably talking serious dilution.

No comments:

Post a Comment